2027: Distrust, Vote Buying Threaten Turnout, Says Yiaga Africa

*New NVIS survey finds 84% of Nigerians intend to vote, yet only 34% are confident in INEC, 61% say fear of violence could Keep them at home

Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo

The Third round of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey, (NVIS 3.0) has showed that Nigerians are ready to vote in the 2027 general elections, but insecurity, weak trust in electoral institutions and the monetization of politics could keep millions away from the polls,

The report, titled “Willing but Wary’, shows how Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027, draws on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above in all 36
states and the FCT, conducted in September 2026 by telephone and,
for the first time, face to face in rural communities.

It also tracks change since NVIS 1.0 (December 2025) and NVIS 2.0 (March 2026).

Yiaga Africa said the key findings shows that Nigerians are willing to vote, ” but commitment is thin not deepening: 84% say they are “likely” or “very likely” to vote. The share of Nigerians likely or very likely to vote moved from 77% (NVIS
1.0) to 73% (NVIS 2.0) and 84% (NVIS 3.0).

It said however, that the proportion of those “very likely” to vote has edged down from 52% (NVIS 1.0) to 48% (NVIS 2.0) to 47% (NVIS 3.0). Only 41% are likely to vote, very certain of their choice”.

It said Insecurity is the biggest barrier. “61% say fear of violence could
stop them voting, rising to 78% in the North-East. 83% say improved
security would make them more likely to vote”.

The report by Yiaga Africa says Trust in INEC is fragile. “34% are confident INEC will conduct credible elections, against 45% in the two previous rounds; 39% are not confident, rising to 62% in the South-East and 57% in the South South”

it said Citizens trust the technology more than the institutions. “49% trust BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission, and awareness of electoral reforms has risen from 24% to
62% since December 2025″.

“The Performance will be central to voter choice in 2027: 54% disapprove of the President’s performance, while 71% rate the economy as poor or very poor. These findings suggest that perceptions of government performance and prevailing economic conditions will weigh heavily on voter choices in 2027”.

The report said the desire for change in leadership, (49%) is the leading motivation to vote, while the economy and jobs (38%) and security (36%) are the dominant policy priorities. Together, these findings suggest that government performance and material conditions will be central to voting choices in 2027″.

Yiaga Africa through its report also said the. Young people show weaker voting intention and greater electoral distrust: “Only 40% of young people say they are very likely to vote, compared with 64% of those aged 61 and above. Young respondents also report greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust
in INEC and substantially greater reliance on social media for election information”.

.It further said that its report showed that the judiciary is not widely perceived as a credible safety valve: “63% have little or no confidence that the judiciary will resolve electoral disputes fairly, rising to 81% in the South-South. This suggests limited public confidence in the institution expected to provide final resolution when electoral outcomes are contested”.

Speaking on the release, Safiya Bichi, Head, Knowledge Management and Learning, Yiaga Africa, said: “Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference. What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money. Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not
an apathy problem, and the responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics. With the presidential election on 16 January 2027, the window to act is short.

As a call to action, Yiaga Africa calls on:
the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat- based national election security plan through ICCES by November 2026, prioritizing the North-East, North-West and North-Central, and to protect voters, not only election materials.

It has also called on INEC to make a binding public commitment to real-time upload of all polling unit results to IReV, publish and stress-test its results management protocol, and run targeted
confidence-building in the South-East and South-South.

Yiaga Africa tasked the Judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballots are printed and to publish clear timelines for election petitions.

It also urged the Political parties and candidates to compete on costed plans for security and the economy, and to sign and honor the Peace Accord and an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.

It called on the Civil society and the media to shift voter education from exhortation to assurance, target young people, women and under-reached zones, and counter election misinformation.

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