….experts call for urgent, sustainable measures to mitigate impacts

By Gabriel Ewepu

ABUJA — Nigeria’s food system is facing growing threats from climate change as erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, flooding, rising temperatures, pests and diseases disrupt farming activities, slash yields and leave farmers counting losses running into billions of Naira.

The situation, according to farmers and agricultural experts who spoke with Vanguard Agrobiz, is also discouraging investment in food production, with farmers, agribusinesses and financial institutions becoming increasingly cautious about committing capital to a sector whose fortunes are heavily dependent on weather conditions.

Climate change is also aggravating desertification in northern Nigeria, while the spread of pests and crop diseases continue to threaten large hectares of farmland.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, in its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, warned of significant variations in rainfall patterns across the country, with early onset expected in several southern and North-Central states and delayed onset in Borno State.

The agency also projected variations in the end of the rainy season, with some areas expected to experience earlier cessation and others a longer-than-normal season, which were to impact on farmers and their activities. While normal annual rainfall is expected across most parts of the country, above-normal rainfall is projected in parts of the North, South-East, South-South and the FCT, with below-normal rainfall expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states.

NiMet further warned of dry spells in parts of 14 states, including Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara, raising concerns over possible disruptions to planting and crop development.

For farmers who have suffered the consequences of climate variability in previous seasons, the forecasts have heightened concerns over the risks ahead.

‘Climate change impact demands urgent action’

The Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, AFAN, Dr Nkechi Okafor, described climate change as a major threat to food production, warning that its worsening impact could push more farmers out of business and deepen food insecurity.

Okafor said farmers who traditionally relied on predictable rainfall patterns could no longer depend on established planting calendars, “Climate change is real. It has come to stay. The only thing now is how we can work around it to make headway.”

According to her, irregular rainfall has become a major challenge, with farmers sometimes planting after the first rains only to experience prolonged dry spells afterwards.

She said as a crop farmer who produces cereals, legumes and root and tuber crops, late commencement of rainfall and early cessation had affected the production of several crops.

She particularly identified rice production and root and tuber crops as being vulnerable where adequate water is unavailable, stressing the need to expand irrigation infrastructure to reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall.

Farmers lose billions to climate shocks

The FCT AFAN boss also said Nigerian farmers were recording huge losses as a result of climate-related shocks, “Losses incurred cannot just be stated. It is not only about me; it is about Nigerian farmers. Nigeria farmers are running losses into billions of naira, and it is unfortunate.”

While noting that the government could not control climate change, Okafor called for greater investment in building farmers’ capacity to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices.

She also expressed concern that many rural farmers were not receiving timely weather information despite forecasts from NiMet.

“My fear is clear. Before this challenge of climate change, every farmer knew the period that rains start in each region, but today, no one can predict when rain will start,” she said.

She called for stronger collaboration between farmers’ groups and relevant government agencies to train farmers on climate-smart agriculture and help them cope with increasingly uncertain weather conditions.

Okafor also urged the government to address the rising cost of agricultural inputs, saying farmers were currently facing a situation where inputs were expensive while farm produce remained relatively cheap.

She called for greater investment in irrigation, capacity building and all-year-round farming systems that would reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall.

Planting calendars disrupted, yields reduced

For the Chief Farmer and Lead of JetFarmsNG, Jerry Olanrenwaju, climate change has had a direct impact on crop production, with unpredictable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and excessive flooding disrupting planting calendars and reducing yields.

He said the effects were particularly noticeable in crops such as ginger, turmeric and garlic.

According to him, irregular rainfall affects germination and root development, while excessive moisture increases the risk of fungal diseases.

Olanrenwaju said some farmers within the company’s network had recorded losses of between 30 and 40 per cent of expected yields in some seasons.

He explained that a farmer investing between N500,000 and N800,000 per hectare could lose hundreds of thousands of naira due to adverse weather conditions alone.

“As we approach the wet season, my major concern is the uncertainty. Will the rains come early, late, or excessively? This unpredictability makes planning very difficult and increases the risk of crop failure,” he said.

To reduce the risks, he said JetFarmsNG was promoting climate-smart practices, including improved land preparation, organic soil enhancement, better drainage systems and adaptive planting schedules.

The company is also exploring irrigation and water-management solutions while working with partners to introduce improved seeds capable of withstanding changing weather conditions.

He, however, said government interventions were yet to reach farmers on the scale required, calling for increased access to extension services, finance, insurance and reliable climate information.

Climate change fuels fear among farmers

Similarly, the Co-Founder of DeBranch Farmers Limited, Sandra Victor-Gwafan, said climate change had created fear and hesitation among farmers in Kaduna and other parts of the country.

Victor-Gwafan, said farmers could no longer confidently determine the appropriate time to plant because early rains could suddenly stop, while heavy rains could arrive later than expected.

DeBranch Farmers, which works mainly with rice out-growers, is already taking precautionary measures, including farmer sensitisation, drainage planning, coordinated mechanisation and staggered planting.

Victor-Gwafan said some farmers had previously invested between N250,000 and N400,000 per hectare on inputs, labour and land preparation but lost between 30 and 50 per cent of their expected harvest due to flooding and prolonged dry spells.

She called for increased investment in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, resilient seeds, extension services, timely climate information and affordable financing.

‘I now plan for irrigation before planting’

A vegetable farmer in Osun State, Oluokun Remi, said the impact of climate change on crops such as tomatoes, pepper, okra, cucumber, cabbage, onion and fruits had become increasingly significant.

“When the rain is excessively too much, it will wash away nutrients from the reach of the plant roots”, he said, adding that he had suffered losses when expected rainfall failed to materialise or stopped suddenly after planting.

To reduce the risk, Remi said he now plans for irrigation before planting, “If the rain comes, fine, and if it doesn’t come, there is a plan,” he said, adding that climate pressures are ‘varied and severe’.

An environmental expert, Prof Babatunde Bolaji Bernard, said climate change had moved from being a distant environmental concern to an immediate threat to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and food security.

He said farmers across the country were facing erratic rainfall, delayed onset of rains, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and extreme flooding.

According to him, drought and desertification are particularly affecting the northern belt, while flooding in central and southern parts of the country is destroying crops, eroding soil nutrients and damaging agricultural infrastructure.

He also identified heat stress, pests and diseases as growing threats to crops and livestock.

“Crops most affected include maize, which is highly sensitive to water stress; rice, which suffers from both drought and flooding; sorghum and millet, which are relatively resilient but still impacted by extreme heat; and cassava, a staple that is increasingly threatened by shifting rainfall patterns and disease outbreaks”, Bernard said.

He warned that the cumulative impact was contributing to declining food production, higher production costs and rising food prices.

Experts seek shift to climate-smart agriculture

Bernard called for urgent adaptation measures, including the adoption of early-maturing and drought-resistant crop varieties, improved irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, crop diversification and agroforestry.

He also advocated stronger weather information and extension services to enable farmers to make informed planting and harvesting decisions.

At the policy level, he called for increased investment in irrigation, rural roads, storage, market infrastructure and agricultural insurance.

He also urged the government to strengthen environmental regulations aimed at addressing deforestation and land degradation while leveraging international climate financing to support agricultural adaptation.

Nigeria needs sustainable climate resilience strategy – ActionAid

The Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, Dr Andrew Mamedu, said climate change was already a lived reality for millions of Nigerian smallholder farmers, particularly women who constitute a significant part of household food production.

Mamedu said farmers in northern Nigeria were experiencing prolonged droughts, desertification and shorter rainy seasons, while communities in the Middle Belt and southern riverine areas were increasingly exposed to flooding.

According to him, climate shocks were disrupting planting calendars, reducing yields and increasing production risks.

He noted that the effects extended beyond production to post-harvest losses, saying extreme weather conditions, poor storage, inadequate processing facilities and weak rural infrastructure were worsening losses.

Mamedu also highlighted the disproportionate impact on women farmers, who often face additional barriers to land, finance, irrigation, extension services and climate information.

‘Government response remains fragmented’

While acknowledging ongoing government and development-partner interventions in climate-resilient agriculture, agroecology and farmer support programmes, Mamedu said the overall response remained insufficient compared with the scale of the challenge.

He identified underinvestment in agriculture, limited irrigation infrastructure, weak extension services and inadequate access to finance as major constraints.

He called for a deliberate shift from reactive interventions to a coordinated and adequately financed transformation of Nigeria’s food system.

According to him, government and development partners must scale up investment in drought- and flood-tolerant crop varieties, soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, sustainable livestock systems, irrigation and water harvesting.

He also advocated investment in climate-resilient storage, cold chains, rural roads and local processing facilities to reduce post-harvest losses and improve farmers’ incomes.

Mamedu urged the government to expand access to affordable credit, insurance and targeted subsidies, with particular attention to women and young farmers.

“Ultimately, Nigeria cannot achieve food security without building climate resilience, and it cannot build climate resilience without prioritising the farmers who produce the country’s food”, he said.

Smallholder farmers must include insurance to survive floods, drought – Leadway Assurance

Meanwhile, the Global Head, Agricultural Risk at Leadway Assurance, Mr. Ayoola Fatona, counseled that farmers need to make provision on insuring the inputs and farms as a way to reduce the impact of flood and draught.

According to him, many farmers do not treat insurance as a critical farm input when budgeting for the planting season, focusing only on seeds and fertiliser.

“The smallholder farmer is at high risk. They are very much exposed, especially with this issue of climate and weather. Those are the little risk factors that smallholder farmers have to grapple with. And so that is where insurance goes in,” he said.

He added: “Also, at the beginning of the season, when farmers are drawing out their budget, insurance is really not their preference. If you take a look at it as a service, they may do without it. You think about procuring seeds, procuring fertilizer, they don’t really think at that particular point.”

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